European forests are facing increasing pressure from extreme events and climate change. A recent international study shows that damage caused by wildfires, storms and infestations could significantly rise by the end of the century. The analysis, based on satellite data and advanced models, highlights critical areas and the need for targeted actions.
Main threats to European forests
By 2100, damage to European forests caused by extreme events could double. The main threats include wildfires, especially in southern and western Europe, along with insect and pathogen outbreaks and storm damage.
The findings come from an international study published in Science, led by the Technical University of Munich with contributions from Italian research institutes.
Satellite monitoring and new technologies
Researchers showed that forest disturbances can now be detected almost in real time using radar images from the Sentinel-1 satellite constellation.
Radar allows observation through clouds and does not depend on sunlight, providing updated images every three to six days at a 10×10 meter resolution.
To improve accuracy, radar data were combined with climate and forest-type information.
Advanced models and large-scale analysis
The study combined over 30 years of satellite observations (1986–2020) with simulations from around 13,000 sites across Europe.
A dataset of about 135 million simulations was used to train an AI-based model capable of projecting forest dynamics and disturbances at a one-hectare resolution.
This enabled a detailed and spatially explicit assessment of future risks.
Impact of climate change
Results show an increase in forest disturbances across all scenarios, including wildfires, storms and insect infestations.
While tree mortality is part of natural processes, climate change is intensifying the frequency and scale of these events.
Recent years have already seen unprecedented levels of forest damage in several European regions.
Regional differences and vulnerable areas
Regional disparities are significant. Southern and western Europe are particularly vulnerable, with rising wildfire risk and water stress that also favor pest outbreaks.
Northern Europe is less affected overall but still shows local hotspots of vulnerability.
Italy emerges as one of the countries more exposed to these trends.
Implications for ecosystems and policies
Global warming acts as a risk multiplier. Even under moderate scenarios, expected damage exceeds historical levels.
Under high-emission scenarios, with temperatures rising above 4°C by 2100, affected forest areas could more than double.
These changes impact carbon balance, timber markets and ecosystem stability.
Adaptation and future management
Despite the risks, disturbances may also create opportunities for forest renewal, enabling more climate-adapted ecosystems.
This requires management strategies based on scientific evidence to enhance resilience and structural diversity.
Integrating disturbance risk into forest policies will be essential in the coming decades.